The sharpest Sunni criticism came last week from Sheikh Mahdi Al-Sumaidaei, head of the Supreme Association for Guidance (irshad) and Daawa, a conservative Sunni organisation, who accused interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's government of "launching a war on Sunnis". Al-Sumaidaei blamed the most influential Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, for not condemning the Falluja attack. "We did not hear from them at all," Al-Sumaidaei said. "I assume they are either satisfied [with the assault] or they are afraid. When there were attacks on Shia cities, the Sunni clerics in Iraq immediately condemned them. What about the Shias now?"
The Muslim Cleric Association (MCA) seen as the most influential Sunni group with over 3000 cleric membership has called for a boycott of the elections. And the Islamic Party, the main Sunni Islamic Party in the interim government has withdrawn support for government. Allawi claims that a small minority of Sunni will actually boycott the election. He estimates 5 to 7 percent. This is a ridiculous projection considering most of the Sunni leadership is calling for boycotts. Of course we do have two months and a lot can happen in 60 days.
There are some signs of hope that things can change. While the Islamic Party has with drawn support, the Minister of Industry Hashim Al-Hassani, did not resign from office. Nor did the party's four members in the interim parliament withdraw from their posts. Al-Hassani ruled out any split inside the party and justified his decision to stay. "I felt that I can do something for Falluja and other cities, as I am inside the cabinet," he said. "The big issue is about Iraq -- not Falluja or Najaf, but the unity of the Iraqi people. There were conspiracies against Iraq which could have undermined the Iraqi institutions, yet the presence of honest national members was able to thwart them."
Al Hassani went on to say that, "The problem of Falluja stems from foreign agendas. Foreigners have been arrested in Falluja, including ten Iranians. These foreign agendas are not in the interest of the Iraqis."
So a door is open for Sunni cooperation. But it surely depends on how many Sunni are actually part of the resistance or sympathize with it. The video of the wounded Iraq being killed in the mosque surely does not help the situation. Not to mention the Kurds who according to AL-AHRAM, Kurds now consider the assault on Falluja necessary. Nawshirwan Mustafa, an official with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), said Falluja was a "hub of terrorists", and his only criticism of the US-led attack was that it did not happen sooner. Former Kurdish guerrillas, now serving in the Iraqi National Guard, have provided reinforcements to battle Arab rebels in the northern city of Mosul during the attack on Falluja.
In my opinion the U.S. constant use of force, disregard for Iraqi opinion and horrible treatment of everyday Iraqis in their won country is creating a situation where civil war is more likely than not. In fact there is already a civil war of sorts with Iraqis siding with the U.S. fighting Iraqis who want the U.S. t leave immediately. By hand picking leaders instead of developing a process where people who have grassroots support are forced to work together to represent the people of Iraq we are intensifying sectarian differences.
Possibly by brining Najaf and al-Sadir under more control most of the Shia resistance has been pacified. Bush is gambling that the Fallujah attack will quite down the Sunni. This does not seem to be the case. The U.S. controls the city but there is continued fighting and it has reignited fighting in other parts of the country. Bush should also remember foreign fighters like Abu Musab al-Zarqawi will be satisfied with one of two objectives, continued chaos in Iraq or control by a fascist Islamic government sympathetic to al Qeada. Bush's reliance of the use of force to make people comply with U.S. will only embitter locals and drive them to foreigners.
As always it is really up to the Iraqi people to decide the validity of the elections. But the Bush administration could make it a little easier by letting the process take its on course rather than trying to control everything. In the end we may end up controlling nothing. Remember Vietnam.
Washington Post: How Ayad Allawi came to power.
