After the Iowa caucus, I wrote a piece comparing Rick Santorum's almost win (which turned out to be a clear win) to candidate Barack Obama's caucus success there in 2008. Santorum is to Mitt Romney what Barack Obama was to Hillary Clinton. The Lefts anti-war sentiment and her refusal to apologize for voting to authorize the invasion of Iraq was Clinton's Achilles heel. Obama won in Iowa and rode the peace wave to his party's nomination. Similar to Hillary, Romney is hamstrung by the statewide healthcare plan he adopted as governor of Massachusetts and other past stances he has taken contrary to Conservative movement values. The activist wing of the Left did not trust Clinton. The conservative wing of the Right does not trust Romney. Santorum has the best rap and record for the Conservative vote and current temperament. The Iowa caucus was a test for him to prove he has what it takes to win. Santorum now rides the wave of conservative activism fueled by the Tea Party.
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With Dole and McCain, the Republicans picked the establishment candidate whose turn it was to run as the Party's nominee. It didn't matter if their time had passed, the system did not allow room for that realization. This time, however, the unconventional Tea Party movement is bucking the system. They do not care who is supposed to be up to bat. They care about their principles and winning in that order. They don't want to pick a loser, but they don't want a winner they can't believe in. They wear their beliefs and the emotions attached to those beliefs on their sleeves. So does Rick Santorum. Inspiration may win again.
But while candidates need inspiration to win, inspiration alone is not enough. Santorum still faces the same challenges he faced in Iowa: lack of funds and organization. Romney has that over him by far and is still the establishment's choice. Perhaps most crippling obstacle for Santorum is the continuation of Gingrich's failing candidacy. He and to a lesser extent Ron Paul continue to fracture the non-Romney vote. But nationally Santorum's rise comes at the expense of Gingrich and Romney. If Santorum can continue to gain momentum and convince people to support him because they believe, he still won't raise more money than Romney, but he may raise enough.
Santorum's greatest strength is his consistent conservatism. A few days ago CNN personality Jack Cafferty commented "....if Mitt Romney wants to defeat Rick Santorum - who is the current flavor of the month in the polls - all he has to do is read some of this stuff aloud at campaign stops." Then he went on to cite items that would hurt Santorum with moderate and liberal voters in a general election, but in fact help him with many social conservatives in the current primaries such as blaming radical feminist for forcing women to work and comparing homosexuality to polygamy and bestiality. Cafferty’s advice is the exact opposite of what would help Romney defeat Santorum. Santorum's unabashed attitude about his conservative views, his appeal as a hard working blue collar guy who believes in free market capitalism and his over the top proselytizing of American exceptionalism is exactly why conservatives find him so appealing. Even as he finds himself explaining or justifying questionable comments surfacing from the past, he benefits from the focus on his conservative credentials. On the other hand, Romney's past reminds voters why they do not trust him. He cannot attack Santorum's conservative values to gain the favor of Conservatives without stirring up this distrust. He does not have the ability to out- conservative Santorum and the idea that Romney is the only one who has a chance to beat President Obama is losing traction. This puts him in a tough spot. It will be interesting to see if his planned TV ad attack strategy will give Romney more traction.
So the question becomes, can Santorum stand strong as a frontrunner? After his lackluster performance in the February 22nd Arizona debate, we have to wonder. Gingrich, Paul and Romney did a good job keeping him on the defensive. We have to see what the polls say over the next few weeks. But most importantly, we look forward to Super Tuesday. That day will reveal whether Santorum or Gingrich will be the last man standing against Romney. No matter what happens, Ron Paul will continue to be in the mix, but he does not threaten the nomination. I forecast Newt will fall to the wayside and the fight will remain between Romney and Santorum. Money and organization vs. inspiration and enthusiasm.
